We must do everything we can to prevent a hard Brexit. The consequences for the Netherlands, especially in terms of trade and economy, would be severe.

Analyse

Rutte’s statement aligned with multiple pre-Brexit impact assessments, including reports from the **Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB)** and the **European Commission**, which projected significant trade disruptions and GDP losses for the Netherlands under a no-deal or hard Brexit scenario. The Netherlands, as a major EU trade hub (e.g., Rotterdam port, agriculture, and financial services), was indeed highly exposed to Brexit-related risks. Post-Brexit trade data (e.g., 2021–2023) confirmed declines in Dutch-UK trade volumes, though mitigation efforts (e.g., new customs infrastructure) softened some impacts.

Achtergrond

The Netherlands was the **UK’s 3rd-largest EU trading partner** pre-Brexit, with sectors like agri-food, logistics, and finance heavily integrated. Studies in 2017–2018 (e.g., by **Rabobank** and **ING**) estimated a hard Brexit could cost the Dutch economy **1–3% of GDP** over a decade due to tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and supply chain friction. Rutte’s government actively lobbied for a **soft Brexit** (e.g., retaining single-market access) to protect these interests.

Samenvatting verdict

Mark Rutte’s 2017 warning about the economic risks of a hard Brexit for the Netherlands was accurate, supported by contemporaneous analyses and later economic data.

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