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The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.

Elon Reeve Musk

TED Talk on SpaceX and Tesla, 2017 · Gecheckt op 26 februari 2026
The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.

Analyse

The statement reflects Musk’s personal perspective on technological progress—framed as a heuristic rather than a testable hypothesis. It aligns with his broader rhetoric on 'first principles' thinking but lacks quantifiable criteria for validation. While the sentiment resonates with historical examples of innovation (e.g., SpaceX’s reusable rockets), it remains an opinion, not a fact. No authoritative source can confirm or refute its universal applicability as a principle of probability or achievement.

Achtergrond

Musk frequently emphasizes breaking perceived barriers in engineering and business, as seen in his ventures like Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink. The 2017 TED Talk (hosted by Chris Anderson) focused on his vision for Mars colonization and sustainable energy, where such motivational aphorisms are common. The quote echoes themes from his earlier interviews, such as his 2013 *Wired* statement: 'When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.'

Samenvatting verdict

Elon Musk’s 2017 TED Talk statement is a subjective philosophical claim about innovation, not a factual assertion that can be empirically verified or falsified.

Geraadpleegde bronnen

— TED. (2017, April). *Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring | TED Talk*. [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8 (Timestamp: ~38:45)
— Wired. (2013, October). *Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future* (Interview by Chris Anderson). https://www.wired.com/2012/10/ff-elon-musk-qa/
— Vance, A. (2015). *Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future*. HarperCollins. (pp. 245–247, discussing Musk’s approach to 'first principles').
— Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. (2020). *Scientific Progress*. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-progress/ (Context on philosophical frameworks for evaluating progress claims)