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Climate change is a crisis multiplier. It makes the world more dangerous by fueling instability, conflict, and forced migration. NATO must play its part in understanding and adapting to this reality.

Jens Stoltenberg

NATO Climate Change Action Plan announcement, Brussels, 2021 · Checked on 3 March 2026
Climate change is a crisis multiplier. It makes the world more dangerous by fueling instability, conflict, and forced migration. NATO must play its part in understanding and adapting to this reality.

Analysis

Stoltenberg’s claim aligns with NATO’s 2021 **Climate Change and Security Action Plan**, which explicitly identifies climate change as a 'threat multiplier' exacerbating instability, conflict, and migration. The statement is further supported by academic studies (e.g., *Nature*, *PNAS*) and reports from the **IPCC**, **UNHCR**, and **World Bank**, which link climate stressors to increased risks of conflict and displacement. NATO’s subsequent policies—such as emissions reduction targets for militaries and climate-risk assessments—demonstrate institutional commitment to addressing these challenges. No credible evidence contradicts the core assertion.

Background

NATO formally recognized climate change as a security threat in its **2021 Brussels Summit Communiqué**, marking a shift from earlier, more cautious language. The alliance’s focus reflects broader geopolitical trends, including the **EU’s climate-security strategies** and U.S. Defense Department assessments (e.g., 2021 *DOD Climate Risk Analysis*). Stoltenberg’s framing mirrors terminology used by the **UN Security Council** and **G7**, which have repeatedly warned of climate-driven instability since the 2010s.

Verdict summary

Jens Stoltenberg’s 2021 statement accurately reflects NATO’s official stance and broader scientific consensus on climate change as a threat multiplier, as documented in NATO’s **Climate Change Action Plan** and peer-reviewed research.

Sources consulted

— NATO (2021). *Climate Change and Security Action Plan*. [Official NATO Document](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm)
— IPCC (2022). *Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability* (Chapter 7: 'Conflict and Migration'). [IPCC Report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/)
— UNHCR (2020). *Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2020*. [UNHCR Data](https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2020/)
— World Bank (2018). *Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration*. [World Bank Report](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/publication/groundswell-preparing-for-internal-climate-migration)
— U.S. Department of Defense (2021). *Climate Risk Analysis*. [DOD Report](https://media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/2002873665/-1/-1/0/CLIMATE-RISK-ANALYSIS.PDF)