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Global warming is real and man-made, but it’s not the end of the world. The current narrative exaggerates the risks while downplaying the costs of drastic climate policies.

Bjørn Lomborg

Interview with *The Guardian*, 2020 · Checked on 3 March 2026
Global warming is real and man-made, but it’s not the end of the world. The current narrative exaggerates the risks while downplaying the costs of drastic climate policies.

Analysis

The first part of Lomborg’s statement—acknowledging anthropogenic global warming—aligns with the **IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (2021-2023)**, which confirms human activity as the dominant driver of recent warming. However, his assertion that risks are 'exaggerated' conflicts with **peer-reviewed projections** (e.g., IPCC’s high-confidence findings on extreme weather, sea-level rise, and ecosystem collapse) and **economic analyses** (e.g., Stern Review, 2006; IMF 2023) showing that unmitigated warming poses catastrophic risks. His emphasis on the 'costs of drastic policies' reflects his long-standing argument (e.g., *Cool It*, 2007) prioritizing adaptation over mitigation, but this **ignores consensus reports** (e.g., IEA 2023) demonstrating that delayed action increases long-term economic and human costs.

Background

Bjørn Lomborg, a political scientist and founder of the **Copenhagen Consensus Center**, is known for skeptical views on climate policy urgency, often advocating for cost-benefit analyses that downplay immediate mitigation. His work has been **criticized by climate scientists** (e.g., in *Scientific American*, 2010) for cherry-picking data and underestimating tipping points. The **IPCC and NOAA** consistently warn that current trajectories (e.g., +1.1°C since pre-industrial times) risk irreversible damage, contradicting Lomborg’s framing of the issue as overstated.

Verdict summary

Lomborg’s claim that global warming is real and human-caused is scientifically accurate, but his framing of its risks and policy costs is contentious and selectively emphasizes certain economic arguments over mainstream climate science consensus.

Sources consulted

— IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report (2023): [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/)
— Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006): [https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20130129110150/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm](https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20130129110150/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm)
— IEA World Energy Outlook (2023): [https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023)
— Scientific American critique of Lomborg (2010): [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bjorn-lomborg-false-prophet/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bjorn-lomborg-false-prophet/)
— NOAA Global Climate Report (2023): [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series)