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We are in a new Cold War, and it’s with China. The question is: How do we manage it?

Margaret Brennan

Interview with CIA Director William Burns on *Face the Nation*, 2023 · Gecheckt op 3 maart 2026
We are in a new Cold War, and it’s with China. The question is: How do we manage it?

Analyse

Burns’ statement oversimplifies the relationship: unlike the Soviet Union, China is deeply integrated into the global economy (e.g., $600B+ annual U.S.-China trade). The Biden administration and CIA leadership (including Burns himself in other contexts) emphasize **competition, not containment**, avoiding the term 'Cold War' to prevent self-fulfilling escalation. While Burns highlights strategic rivalry in tech (e.g., semiconductors) and military posturing (e.g., Taiwan), the analogy ignores cooperation on climate and pandemics. Experts like Harvard’s Graham Allison argue the term risks **misdiagnosing the challenge** as purely adversarial.

Achtergrond

The 'Cold War' framing gained traction after the 2017 U.S. *National Security Strategy* labeled China a 'revisionist power,' but officials (e.g., Blinken, Sullivan) consistently reject the term. China’s 2020 *Dual Circulation* policy and U.S. export controls (e.g., on ASML chip machines) reflect decoupling in critical sectors, yet interdependence persists. The CIA’s 2023 *World Threat Assessment* focuses on **competition**, not ideological conflict.

Samenvatting verdict

While U.S.-China tensions resemble Cold War dynamics, **official U.S. policy and most experts reject framing it as a 'new Cold War'** due to deep economic interdependence and the absence of ideological blocs like those in the U.S.-Soviet standoff.

Geraadpleegde bronnen

— U.S. National Security Strategy (2022), The White House - [Page 24: 'Outcompete China'] (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf)
— CIA Director Burns’ remarks at Georgetown (2023): ‘Not a Cold War but a **sustained test of wills**’ - [CIA Transcript](https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/2023-speech-director-burns-at-georgetown-university)
— Graham Allison, *The Thucydides Trap* (2017) - Harvard Belfer Center - [Analysis of U.S.-China rivalry](https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap)
— U.S.-China Trade Data (2023), U.S. Census Bureau - [$575B bilateral trade](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
— 2023 *Annual Threat Assessment*, ODNI - [China as ‘pacing challenge,’ not Cold War adversary](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf)