Analysis
Lomborg’s figure appears derived from datasets like the **International Disaster Database (EM-DAT)**, which show a **~90% drop in storm/flood deaths since the 1920s**—largely due to socioeconomic progress (e.g., better healthcare, urban planning). However, this excludes **heatwaves**, which now kill more people annually (e.g., 60,000+ in Europe’s 2022 heatwave per *The Lancet*) and are directly exacerbated by climate change. Additionally, the **IPCC AR6 (2021)** notes that while *absolute* deaths may fall in wealthy nations, **vulnerable regions** (e.g., South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) face rising climate risks. Lomborg’s framing omits these critical nuances, creating a misleading impression of universal progress.
Background
Lomborg, a controversial climate policy commentator, frequently argues that climate change is overstated as an immediate threat, advocating for adaptation over mitigation. His claims often rely on selective data—here, focusing on *historical* declines in *specific* weather-related fatalities while downplaying **projected future risks** (e.g., IPCC’s warnings of increased droughts, wildfires, and heat stress). The **WSJ op-ed** aligns with his broader skepticism of urgent climate action, a stance criticized by scientists for cherry-picking metrics.
Verdict summary
While global deaths from **some** extreme weather events (e.g., storms, floods) have declined due to improved infrastructure and early warning systems, Lomborg’s 95% claim oversimplifies by ignoring heat-related mortality, regional disparities, and the role of climate change in increasing *frequency* and *intensity* of many extremes.