We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.

Analysis

The quote is accurately attributed to Bill Gates in his book, where he discusses the tendency to overestimate short-term technological progress while underestimating long-term impacts. The statement aligns with his broader observations on innovation and societal adaptation. No credible evidence disputes this attribution.

Background

Published in 1995, 'The Road Ahead' explores the future of technology and its societal implications. Gates co-authored the book with Nathan Myhrvold and Peter Rinearson. The quote reflects a common theme in tech forecasting, often cited as 'Amara's Law' (though Gates' phrasing predates Roy Amara's popularization of the concept).

Verdict summary

Bill Gates did make this statement in his 1995 book 'The Road Ahead'.

Sources consulted